Thursday, 3 November 2011

A rapid freeze-up scientific analysis on Arctic sea ice conditions


Daily image update
extent map time series
Sea ice data updated daily, with one-day lag. Orange line in extent image (left) and gray line in time series (right) indicate 1979 to 2000 average extent for the day shown. Click for high-resolution image.
Learn about update delays and other problems which occasionally occur in near-real-time data. Read about the data.
—Credit: National Snow and Ice Data Center
Read scientific analysis on Arctic sea ice conditions. We provide an update during the first week of each month, or more frequently as conditions warrant.
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November 2, 2011

A rapid freeze-up

Arctic sea ice extent increased rapidly through October, as is typical this time of year. Large areas of open water were still present in the Beaufort and Chukchi seas at the end of the month. 
The open water contributed to unusually warm conditions along the coast of Siberia
 and in the Beaufort and Chukchi seas.
map from space showing sea ice extent, continentsFigure 1. Arctic sea ice extent for October 2011 was 7.10 million square kilometers (2.74 million square miles). The magenta line shows the 1979 to 2000 median extent for that month. The black cross indicates the geographic North Pole.Sea Ice Index data.
—Credit: National Snow and Ice Data Center

High-resolution image






































































Overview of conditions
Average ice extent for October 2011 was 7.10 million square kilometers

 (2.74 million square miles), 2.19 million square kilometers (846,000 square miles)
 below the 1979 to 2000 average. This was 330,000 square kilometers (127,000 square miles)
 above the average for October 2007, the lowest extent in the satellite record for that month
 By the end of October, ice extent remained below the 1979 to 2000 average in the Beaufort and Chukchi
 seas and in the Barents and Kara seas. Extent was near average in the East Greenland Sea.
 New ice growth has closed both the Northwest Passage and the Northern Sea 
Route.

graph with months on x axis and extent on y axisFigure 2. The graph above shows daily Arctic sea ice extent as of October 31, 2011, along with the lowest ice extents in the preceding decades, 1984 and 1999. 2011 is shown in light blue. 2007, the year with the record low minimum, is dashed green. Purple indicates 1999 and light green shows 1984. The gray area around the average line shows the twostandard deviation range of the data. Sea Ice Index data.
—Credit: National Snow and Ice Data Center
High-resolution image
















Conditions in contextArctic sea ice extent increased
 rapidly through October. Ice extent during October 2011
 increased at an average rate of 114,900 square kilometers
 (44,360 square miles) per day, about 40% faster than the
 average growth rate for October 1979 to 2000. On October 
30, Arctic sea ice extent was 8.41 million square kilometers
 (3.25 million square miles), 226,000 square kilometers 
(87,300 square miles) more than the ice extent on October 30, 




2007, the lowest extent on that date in the satellite record.
During the month of October, the freeze-up that begins in 
September kicks into high gear. The rate of freeze-up 
depends on several factors including the atmospheric
 conditions and the amount of heat in the ocean that
 was accumulated during the summer. However, each
 decade, the October extent has started from a lower 
and lower point, with the record low extent during the 
1980s (1984) substantially higher than the record low
 extent during the 1990s (1999), which in turn is substantially higher than the record low extent during the 2000s (2007).

graph with months on x axis and extent on y axisFigure 3. Monthly October ice extent for 1979 to 2011 shows a decline of 6.6% per decade.—Credit: National Snow and Ice Data Center
High-resolution image
October 2011 compared to past yearsIce extent for October 2011 was the second lowest in the satellite record for the month, behind 2007. The linear rate of decline for October over the satellite record is now -61,700 square kilometers (-23,800 square miles) per year, or -6.6% per decade relative to the 1979 to 2000 average.
graph with months on x axis and extent on y axisFigure 4. This map of air temperature anomalies at the 925 hPa level (approximately 3000 feet) for October 2011 shows unusually high temperatures over most of the Arctic Ocean (yellow shading) and unusually low temperatures over the eastern Canadian Arctic Archipelago and Greenland (blue shading). 
—Credit: National Snow and Ice Data Center
High-resolution image
Atmospheric conditionsIn recent years,
 low sea ice extent in the summer has been
 linked to unusually warm temperatures at the
 surface of the Arctic Ocean in the fall.
 This pattern appeared yet again this fall.
Air temperatures over most of the Arctic Ocean
 for October 2011 ranged from 1 to 4 degrees
 Celsius (1.8 to 7.2 degrees Fahrenheit) above
 average, measured at the 925 millibar level,
 about 1,000 meters or 3,000 feet above the
 surface. However, over the eastern Canadian
 Arctic and Greenland, temperatures were as
 much as 3 degrees Celsius
 (5.4 degrees Fahrenheit) below average.
These temperature anomalies in part reflect a
 pattern of above-average sea level pressure
 centered over the northern Beaufort Sea,
 and lower than average sea level pressure
 extending across northern Eurasia.
 This pattern is linked to persistence of the
 positive phase of the Arctic Oscillation through
 most of the month. These pressure and
 temperature anomalies tend to bring in heat
 from the south, warming the Eurasian coast,
 but they also lead to cold northerly winds over
 the eastern Canadian Arctic Archipelago.
However, along the Siberian coast and in the
 Beaufort and Chukchi seas, warmer
 temperatures came primarily from the
 remaining areas of open water in the region, as heat escaped from the water. These effects are more strongly
 apparent in the surface air temperatures: average October temperatures in the region were 5 to 8 degrees
 Celsius (9.0 to 14.4 degrees Fahrenheit) above average.
graph with months on x axis and extent on y axisFigure 5. The top panel of this figure shows the number of open water days for the approximate 75 kilometer (46.6 mi) coastal zone along the Beaufort Sea (data for each year and linear trend). The bottom panel shows the average annual coastal erosion rate for three periods, 1979-1999, 2000-2007 and 2008-2009.
—Credit: NSIDC courtesy Irina Overeem, CU Boulde

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